The presidential elections in Belarus, scheduled for January 26, 2025, are widely anticipated to be a mere formality, devoid of legitimacy and free electoral competition. However, the Lukashenka regime still employs a range of techniques to ensure the elections remain under tight control, writes Victoria Leukavets, research fellow at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs.
Photo: ANP / Natalia Kolesnikova / AFP
Under the authoritarian regime of Aliaksandr Lukashenka, political dissent is brutally suppressed and opposition candidates have been systematically excluded from the political process. The absence of genuine political competition, coupled with the ongoing repression of basic political freedoms, renders these elections even further detached from democratic principles than in previous years. The Lukashenka regime employs various key strategies to secure its grip on power.
In the lead-up to the 2025 presidential elections, the Lukashenka regime has been employing a range of strategies to secure its dominance and maintain control over the electoral process. These strategies reflect the regime’s focus on ensuring the elections occur within a tightly controlled and manipulated environment.
Internal crackdown
In preparation for any potential dissent or unrest, the Lukashenka regime has ramped up security measures across the country. Police forces, internal troops, and special units have been placed on high alert, with the aim of stifling opposition activities and preventing protests. This militarization of everyday life creates an atmosphere of fear and surveillance, limiting citizens' ability to freely express political opinions. According to the Human Righst Center Viasna, in 2024 alone, at least 2,000 people were held accountable under extremist charges. By January 2025, 15 new individuals had been recognized as political prisoners in Belarus. Additionally, Belarusians continue to face prosecution for their involvement in the 2020 protests, including for providing online donations to victims of repression. This systemic crackdown extends to every corner of society, creating a climate where even small acts of solidarity or dissent can lead to severe consequences.
While the regime continues cracking down on dissent, it has also initiated the release of a limited number of political prisoners in a bid to improve its international image. However, this step should not be seen as a genuine concession toward democratization but rather as a calculated maneuver to reduce pressure from both domestic and international actors. By selectively releasing prisoners, the regime seeks to create the appearance of political liberalization, hoping to deflect criticism while retaining full control over political life in Belarus.
Loyalty of elites and society
Another key strategy involves securing the loyalty of key elites who are integral to the regime’s survival. In particular, Lukashenka has sought to placate the security forces and influential figures within his inner circle by offering them high-status roles in the financial sector. Notably, former security personnel have been placed in positions of power as bankers, consolidating Lukashenka's control over both the political and economic spheres. This move helps ensure that influential figures remain loyal to the regime, further cementing its dominance and reducing the likelihood of elite defections that could challenge his rule.
In the leadup to the elections, the regime has also tried to reinforce its narrative within society. A prominent example of this is the 'Unity Marathon', a nationwide series of social and cultural events designed to foster a sense of national pride and unity under Lukashenka’s leadership. This initiative started in September 2024 and spans several months, including a wide range of activities, such as exhibitions, concerts, and public forums that promote the government’s vision of stability and progress.
A central theme of the ‘marathon’ is the portrayal of the state as a force for stability and growth, while the opposition is depicted as a destabilizing force threatening the country’s future. In parallel, Lukashenka has worked to further solidify his image as a defender of Belarus's sovereignty, particularly in relation to the ongoing war in Ukraine. By carefully curating a narrative that presents Belarus as a neutral party in the conflict, Lukashenka aims to project himself as the protector of Belarusian independence, distancing himself from Russia’s actions while reinforcing his grip on power.
Through such activities, the Belarusian regime aims to consolidate domestic support, intimidate critics, and present a facade of popular legitimacy, despite the widespread suppression of political freedoms and the absence of genuine electoral competition. By controlling both the narrative and the mechanisms of power, the regime is determined to ensure that the election is anything but free and fair.
What do Belarusians think about the elections?
Accurately measuring the popular moods and preferences, especially on politically sensitive topics, such as elections in Belarus, is challenging due to the repressive environment in the country. Belarusian citizens fear expressing their true opinions, which leads to self-censorship and biased polling results. Moreover, the state-controlled media landscape severely limits access to independent news, further distorting public perceptions and polling data.
According to the latest opinion poll conducted by Chatham House between December 9, 2024, and January 15, 2025, the majority of Belarusians—except for those who support the government—believe that the upcoming elections will not be conducted fairly. While nearly 90% of respondents agree that it is important for votes to be counted honestly, only about half as many believe that an honest count is possible under the current conditions.
Chatham House analysis shows that opinions on the election results are divided. Many people in the pro-democratic segment of society feel that the outcome of the election is predetermined and does not reflect the will of the voters (77%). Others (in the pro-government segment) disagree with this assumption (37%). Against the backdrop of widespread anti-war sentiment in Belarus (over 90% of Belarusians are against involvement in the war), Lukashenka has worked to project an image as a leader striving to keep Belarus out of the military conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the current situation in Belarus (67% in pro-democratic segment and 18% in the pro-government segment of society). Many respondents have expressed frustration with the economic conditions, corruption, migration policies, and the government’s domestic and foreign policies. A significant portion of the population favors a political "thaw" after the elections (over 50% of respondents), calling for improved relations with the West and a reduction in domestic repression. Even some pro-government groups support this shift, believing that Belarus has historically been open to international cooperation and that repression has already reached its limits. However, despite this widespread support for a potential easing of tensions, the majority of Belarusians are skeptical that such changes will occur after the election (less than 10%).
Strategies of the Belarusian Democratic Forces
While the Lukashenka regime tries to maintain control over the electoral process, the Belarusian democratic forces are actively working to delegitimize the elections and draw international attention to the ongoing human rights violations in the country. The democratic opposition is focusing on highlighting the lack of free and fair conditions, the imprisonment of opposition candidates, and the broader suppression of political freedoms. By emphasizing these issues, the opposition aims to undermine the credibility of the elections and rally international support for their cause.
To further galvanize support for democratic change and call for international attention, the Belarusian democratic forces are organizing a ‘March of Freedom’ in Warsaw on election day. This demonstration will serve as a symbol of solidarity with the people of Belarus and as a protest against the illegitimate elections and repression in the country. Another key event in Warsaw is the conference titled ‘Belarusians Deserve Better’, which will bring together activists, politicians, and international partners to discuss the future of Belarus and the need for democratic reforms.
Through these strategies, the Belarusian democratic forces are striving to maintain momentum for change while applying international pressure on the regime, highlighting its undemocratic actions, and emphasizing the need for accountability. However, a critical challenge facing the Belarusian democratic movement is the weakening link between the diaspora and those within Belarus. While the opposition abroad remains active and vocal, the connection with the population inside the country has become increasingly strained. The Belarusian democratic forces are exploring ways to strengthen this link, but more can and should be done to ensure that the connection is strong and sustainable in the future.
New leadership-in-exile?
Amid this undemocratic environment in Belarus, some members of the Belarusian democratic movement in exile have suggested the need for elections to choose new leadership. However, this perspective does not reflect the views of the majority within the democratic movement. At the New Belarus Conference in Vilnius in August 2024, key documents were adopted which affirmed Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s position as the leader of the Belarusian democratic forces. They reflect the collective will of the opposition, declaring: ‘Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya won the 2020 presidential elections and will serve as national leader until free and fair elections are held in Belarus or until she decides to end her leadership.’
This reaffirmation of Tsikhanouskaya’s mandate underscores her status as the legitimate leader of the Belarusian opposition, a position that remains valid until democratic elections are possible. The calls for new elections to choose a different leader represent a minority viewpoint within the opposition and are seen as divisive. In the current context, holding new leadership elections would likely weaken, rather than strengthen, the unity of the Belarusian democratic forces. Such a move could deepen internal divisions and undermine the cohesive effort needed to challenge Lukashenka’s regime. For now, Tsikhanouskaya’s leadership is seen as crucial for maintaining the momentum of the opposition movement and its unified push for democratic change in Belarus.
Western response to the Belarusian elections
The international community has strongly condemned the undemocratic nature of the upcoming Belarusian presidential elections. The Western response highlights the systematic repression of political opposition, the absence of fair electoral conditions, and the regime's ongoing human rights violations.
The Belarusian government's refusal to invite the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to observe the presidential elections on January 26, 2025, is a critical sign of the regime's lack of commitment to transparent and free elections. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA) expressed regret over this decision, emphasizing that the absence of independent observers undermines the legitimacy of the electoral process. Without impartial monitoring, the ability to assess the election's fairness is severely compromised, highlighting the regime's intent to stifle international scrutiny.
In response to the undemocratic conditions surrounding the elections, both the Polish Parliament and the Czech Parliament have adopted resolutions condemning the electoral process in Belarus. The resolution stresses that the elections cannot be regarded as legitimate due to the ongoing imprisonment of opposition leaders and the broader repressions against Belarusians by the Lukashenka regime. Similarly, the European Parliament has adopted a resolution condemning the lack of electoral fairness in Belarus. The resolution reaffirmed the EU's commitment to supporting the Belarusian people's desire for free, fair, and transparent elections and aims to hold the Belarusian authorities accountable for their actions, reinforcing the EU’s position on the need for democratic reforms and respect for fundamental rights in Belarus.
These responses underscore a unified message of support for the Belarusian opposition and the country's long-standing struggle for democratic reforms. By condemning the lack of fairness in the election process and highlighting the regime's ongoing human rights violations, the West seeks to hold Lukashenka’s government accountable while voicing its continued solidarity with the Belarusian people’s aspirations for a democratic future.
The Belarusian presidential elections scheduled for January 26, 2025, will not reflect the will of the Belarusian people, but rather serve as another tool for the Lukashenka regime to maintain its grip on power. The international community must remain firm in its support for democratic forces in Belarus and ensure that Lukashenka’s actions are met with increased pressure and isolation. The key to advancing democratic change in Belarus lies in continued international solidarity, support for civil society, and a steadfast commitment to holding the Belarusian regime accountable for its actions.