Since the reelection of President Maia Sandu and the country's vote in favour of EU membership, Moldova has suffered from unprecedented hybrid warfare by Russia. Caught amidst an energy crisis, Moldova struggles to counter these operations in the run up to the parliamentary elections coming up later this year. The recent disengagement of the US only makes it harder, writes Melania Parzonka, coordinator of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.

The Chisinau thermal power plant CET-1, which produces electricity and steam for Chisinau's heating system. Chisinau, Moldova, 13 November 2023. Photo: Daniel Mihailescu / ANP / AFP

In 2024, Moldova suffered the largest Russian influence operation committed against it since independence. According to official statistics, Russia spent €100 million on a carefully planned system of electoral interference to disrupt the (simultaneously held) presidential election and the EU referendum. 

Despite this, President Maia Sandu was re-elected with an 11% margin and a narrow majority of Moldovans also voted in favour of EU membership being enshrined in the country's constitution. However, this was only achieved thanks to the overwhelmingly pro-EU Moldovan diaspora. 

Since the election, Russia has only intensified its efforts to discredit Sandu and Prime Minister Dorin Recean’s government. For the parliamentary election coming up later this year, the stakes are even higher – in Moldova’s political system, power resides in parliament. But caught amidst an energy crisis (albeit mitigated by EU subsidies and constant hybrid warfare from Russia), Moldova will struggle to counter Russian influence techniques.

The recent disengagement of the US from large development projects and security commitments in the region only makes it harder.

Problems with Moldova’s energy bill

At the end of last year, Moldova became fully independent from Russian gas and gas-fuelled electricity. It marked the end of years of Russia’s energy blackmail but increased the strain on Moldova’s existing infrastructure. With insufficient capacity, too few power plants and no storage for renewable energy, Moldova relies on EU subsidies to prevent energy prices from spiralling.

Moldova imports its electricity from neighbouring Romania and Ukraine. The low voltage interconnections between Romania and Moldova can only cover needs in the border regions and are unable to supply Moldova’s main energy consumer – Chisinau. Electricity reaches the capital through Ukraine and Russian-controlled Transnistria. But Ukraine, whose energy infrastructure has, of course, been systematically targeted by Russian attacks, is not a reliable provider. During heavy bombings, Moldova experiences power shortages.

Moldova relies on EU subsidies to prevent energy prices from spiralling

In 2024, the US earmarked a total of $300 million for enhancing Moldova’s energy resilience - these projects now remain on hold. Some of these funds were intended to go towards a high-voltage interconnection project to expand the connection to the Strășeni-Gutinaș interconnection to the Romanian electricity grid and increase grid stability.

But the key structural vulnerability in the Moldovan electricity system is the lack of appropriate storage capacity – which would allow for storing energy from renewable sources to use during surge times. This was a key area of contribution from USAID – but its project of installation of a 75 MW Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) has also been put on hold. 

The EU has committed 250 million EUR to stabilise the energy prices. But to secure Moldova’s future, funding and technology is needed to achieve energy security – in the areas where the US has traditionally been a key partner.

Protecting Moldova’s information sphere

Information resilience is another key area for safeguarding Moldova’s stability. Ahead of last year’s elections, Russia employed a variety of tools, from ‘cash for votes’ schemes in breakaway regions, through economic warfare to trigger inflation, combined with covert influence operations, paying influencers, and social media flooding. 

‘This strategy is based on political and electoral corruption, disinformation and manipulation, as well as street protests and unrest,’ according to Alexandru Musteața, director of Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service. Russia relies on a decentralized information system by creating WhatsApp groups sharing false regional information, which then spreads via groups of friends and relatives.

The independent media in Moldova relied on US funding and will struggle to fill the gap. Russian language publications were offering an alternative to official Russian media amongst Russophone communities such as Nokta, a pro-EU outlet in Gaugazia – a region traditionally dominated by pro-Russian sentiment. 

To strengthen its information environment, Moldova needs more funds for strategic communications and content for social media to counter Russia’s informational warfare. But where to find such funds?

Russia ramping up efforts ahead of the parliamentary election

Since the presidential elections last year, Russia’s disinformation efforts in Moldova  have shifted focus to discrediting the government. Interference adapts to geopolitical shifts – there is no shift greater than Donald Trump’s turn against Europe.

Messaging from the US aligns well with Russian propaganda, which also works to discredit civil society and portray NGOs as instruments of foreign control. Elon Musk has referred to USAID as a ‘criminal’ organisation beyond repair, and accused it of influencing elections. Trump called it corrupt and its leaders ‘radical lunatics’.

Fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor has picked up on this rhetoric, calling on DOGE to investigate Moldovan media funding. Former President, Igor Dodon, previously accused by the US of participating in Russia’s malign influence has amplified Elon Musk’s pronouncements.

‘In these times, pro-Russian opposition in Moldova is pro-Trump, at least pro-Trump administration, because this is the message from Russia’, commented Valeriu Pasha, Chairman of Moldovan NGO Watchdog.MD.

‘In these times, pro-Russian opposition in Moldova is pro-Trump'

Watchdog.MD’s recent public opinion poll shows that 8 out of 10 people express a high level of concern about the international shifts. The disengagement of the US strengthened and enabled pre-existing beliefs weaponized by Russia such as: ‘the US meddles in other countries' internal politics’ and ‘the EU supports the war in Ukraine, while Russia (and the US) want peace’.

Russian actors are careful not to overstep – they frame US disengagement as abandonment not of Moldova as a whole, but of the current government. For example, Russian media outlet Izvestia quoted Shor who was pushing the narrative that without US funding, Maia Sandu’s government would fall. In an interview, President Maia Sandu expressed regret that citizens were not sufficiently informed about the benefits and the impact of USAID projects in Moldova.

Europe stepping in

According to Pasha of Watchdog.MD ‘The Moldovan people are not as concerned about the US withdrawal – they are more concerned about the geopolitical turmoil. In Moldova, there is a sense of “lack of agency” – a feeling especially amplified by Russian propaganda. The fact that the EU and the UK stepped up, is important for feeling of security.’

The EU can step in and fill the gap. On top of the €250 million to stabilise the energy prices and another €1.9 billion for a two-year economic growth plan.

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos (L), flanked by Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R), addresses media during a press conference in Chisinau on February 4, 2025, as the European Union is offering Moldova a support package to develop the country's energy resilience. Photo: Elena Covalenko / ANP / AFP

But the key focus remains on strategic communication. Moldova needs financial support – but also people, training and equipment. The funds need to go to civil society, independent media, and government and presidential office strategic communications teams. 

If the EU does not support this information space, then all its support will be discredited by Russian actors. The Russia-backed Socialist Party is already promoting the narrative that EU money is a debt which the country’s grandchildren will be paying off.

Narratives promoted by Russian-affiliated politicians and media channels argue that Moldova’s national security interests require it to balance alliances between Russia, China, the US and the EU. To secure a stable future for Moldova and its EU membership, its partners need to communicate that this is not the case.